Iran

[Big Al]

Now being a person who does not read the rules and regs of anything There is probably a no politics clause on this site but I'm quite worried at all the posturings and sabre rattling over Iran and their nukes, Isreal going on a bombing mission which will bring in Syria, N Korea, China and Russia which will then include the USA who are stationing troops in and around Australia... can you see where this is leading ??

Anyone want to quell my fears at the moment??

Again please don't let it desend into a slanging match like the last one I posted a few months ago please....

Big Al.

[boboff]

Anyone want to quell my fears at the moment??

Nope. Fears noted and understood.

My Grandmother when I was a child often said there will be three world wars and after the world will be ruled by a yellow race, I always assumed she was quoting from the Bible?

You have to believe that Nuclear weapons actually stop Nuclear weapons being used, and that Iran is simply trying to come to the table to negotiate a future for itself with the same bargaining strength as China, US, Isreal.

My foremost concern however would be North Korea. They do seem unhinged politically.

The is Fundamantally now a different animal to 21 years ago when they went into Iraq, or didn't. The US population appetite for spending on the military must surely decrease soon, and that economy is more likely to collapse than Greece in reality, when that happens it's financial armagedon for one and all, and at that point you have to worry about the possibility of agressive empire building by someone? With the global economy though empire building can now be a corporate option as well as a military one.

Still, if things don't change they'll stay the same.

[MKG]

There's a world of difference, Al, between nuclear research with a view to developing weapons and actually making a bomb. The mechanics of building a bomb are ridiculously simple - the engineering is another matter entirely. Just having lumps of fissile material is nowhere near enough. The necessary accuracy involved is staggering - so much so that any country attempting to make a bomb would give itself away at a very early stage by trying to obtain ultra-high-precision machine tools. Even if they attempted to make the tools themselves, they'd have to obtain special materials which they can't produce themselves. There are people around the world watching out for exactly this kind of activity.

Iran is a superficially unstable state, having a president who spouts the required rhetoric whilst really being governed by a religious council. Those people have reined in the president before now when he's gone too far, and they'll likely do so again. It's posturing.

You wouldn't need Israel and the USA if Iran suddenly became a real threat. China and Russia, although supporting Iran as far as politics goes, are countries which are not run by lunatics, and they're both quite close to Iran. They, too, would be within reach of any nuclear weapons developed by Iran and, rhetoric aside, would both act if they perceived Iran as a threat. That would leave Iran totally isolated, and that is an unrealistic situation which would leave the Iranians on the point of starvation. They've had a revolution before and could easily have another.

It's kids in the playground stuff - my dad's bigger than your dad. The potential ownership of a big hammer means that they get conciliatory deals on other things. As long as the deals keep on coming (with, of course, reciprocal activity on their part) there'll be talk but no action.

Mike

[oldfella]

Unless of course you end up with some-one like Newt Gingridge in the White-house.

[MKG]

If he (or anyone like him) gets in, all bets are off. I'd even start believing up was down.

[boboff]

I did hear Up was a bit depressed.

[Ecce]

As tense as the situation is, I would not worry about the nuclear scenario too much. Atom bombs are used as a means to scare your enemies off, and that generally works better if people think you are really nuts enough to employ it. But most aren't. Or why was no Atom bomb used since the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

[MKG]

Oh, Mutually Assured Destruction is a pretty good deterrant, Ecce - especially if all participants know it's not only the policy but also the almost certain outcome.

Mike

[greenorelse]

Iraq wanted to trade their oil in other than dollars.

Libya, coincidentally (or not) an oil-rich country, wanted an all-African dinar.

Iran want to trade their oil in other currencies.

Funny that.

[Ellendra]

My Grandmother when I was a child often said there will be three world wars and after the world will be ruled by a yellow race, I always assumed she was quoting from the Bible?

That's not in any Bible I've read. I don't suppose she's still around for you to ask where she learned that?

[Ellendra]

Hate to add to the tension, but Iran already has the capability to explode an EMP that could knock out electronics over most of a continent.

[chuck_n_grace]

Hi,
I remember the Iranian government and their involvement with American hostages under the Carter administration. Iran released the hostages a few minutes after Reagan was sworn into office. I liked Carter...he looked and hoped for the best in mankind and was patient to act with aggression. I liked Reagan because he recognized the worst in mankind and believed there was a time for agression.

President Obama looks and hopes for the best in mankind and is patient to act with aggression and his opponents recognize the worst in mankind and believes there is a time for aggression....seems like deja vu.

Meanwhile, back to the garden where our enemy is frost, heat, veggie loving insects, bad soil conditions, too much/too little rain....didn't we do this before? Seems like deja vu. =)

Regards,
Chuck

[Marc]

Are you sure that the US still has enough operable nukes for the mutually assured destruction to be effective? I'm not certain that they have and I doubt if our nuclear threat would put the fear of god into the Chinese leaders. As for Russia and China not being ruled by nutters, I'm not too sure about that either. Their current stance is not at all persuasive in that respect.
I'm actually quite worried - I was just saying exactly that to a friend yesterday.
Have to say that I can't believe the stupidity of the coalition in slashing our defence at this time.

[oldjerry]

It could be that the MAD theory held up in the times of the cold war,but I think the situation today is quite different.The cosy reassurance of Kahn's Escalation ladder was probably appreciated and adhered to by the technocrats at the Kremlin and Whitehouse,the two raving loonys currently in charge in Iran and Israel probably couldn't pick their noses and scratch their bums at the same time.
We're talking ,on one side of people who support,economically and practically, organizations that send children wearing bombs onto civilian buses,and on the other a rogue state that thinks it's security is gauranteed by enslaving the west Bank under conditions that bear comparison to the Warsaw Ghetto.
The Isreali authorities seem to become increasingly beligerent as any US election approaches(safe in the knowledge that they wont get much grief from the Whitehouse).
The tieless bloke that looks like a meerkat,must be feeling some heat,most of the neighbouring Arab regimes are crashing down around him,and he's painting himself into a corner..............................

......Sorry,hope I'm talking drivel.......................as ever Government is Violence.

[MKG]

MAD is still sustainable. The world used to have an arsenal to do it three or four times over, but now we're more civilised (irony).

The 2010 figures showed the wordlwide arsenal to be 8000 active warheads and another 14000 in storage. Just using the active figure and supposing that in case of war, half of the missiles could be intercepted, that still leaves the possibility of 4000 multi-megaton explosions at more or less the same time spread mostly around the northern hemisphere.

Who fancies their chances of surviving that little lot?

Mike

Oh - Marc, the UK deterrant is delivered by submarines. There are nearly 200 warheads (most of them multiple re-entrant types) available to those submarines, and the idea of the submarine is that no-one else knows where it is. If I was Chinese, I'd worry about that.