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Annpan wrote:It was him....oh crap!

bum - heard about the case in Lanarkshire and wondered.
presumably you have not been in contact with him since he got back?but OH has?

No, we're fine... we have had no contact.
Just sitting and think about them lots though , and the media don't have names or any details so I really should keep schtum. Not that tabloid hounds frequent the pages of ish of course...lol... I suppose they will have all the details by the morning.

Has anyone read "The Coming Plague"?

Must be over 10 years old now, but its a cracking read !

It's shown up here in Aus too. That's all we need, some virus that turns us all into Miss Piggy!

Your situations sounds like a bit of a worry Al, so does yours AnnPan

Nev

I've got a friend whos travelling around the world and has recently been in mexico, and has been travelling through innumerate countries ever since - shes has up til now kept fairly regular contact via facebook. But worringly her last post was to say that she was feeling unwell

I just hope shes okay, I'm going so a bit of ringing round to make sure I think...

Annpan wrote:It was him....oh crap!

I had wondered too, I only got to see the news properly this morning and after they said about them coming back from honeymoon I was pretty certain it was your OH work pal.

Its curious that the outbreaks in other countries are not so virialent though isn't it? I wonder why that is?

Lorna x

Thanks for your concern everyone, OH has gone to work expecting a media frenzy, I am under orders not to speak to any press if they phone (well, whoever gave them the wedding photos sounds like a more likely candidate for hounding IMO)

We are just hoping for the best for their friends and family, some of whom we also know, some of whom are also infected - media reports seem to say that tamiflu is working so we aren't too worried.

Well that's one way to get your wedding photos in the international press huh

Big Al,The chances of them closing schools are relatively small, the chances of them stopping the benefits system is miniscule, and if they did do both of these, they will have emergency strategies for making sure the majority of the population have the food and medicine we require. (even if it means we all get bags of rice dropped at our doors )


I have a question.... although OH is at no greater risk than anyone else we know, I go to a playgroup with 40 kids in a local hall.... I am a link from a huge office building to an entire community.... (or indeed vice-versa) would it be prudent for me to stay at home? or am I over-reacting big-time? Anyone who gets it this early is likely to get very good treatment and thereafter be immune... maybe I should go out as much as possible

Hi Annpan - I realised it was your OH's work mate too - the news has given their names now and they seem to be doing fine - as do those who have been in contact with them.
The media create so much of the panic - its sad when they interfere with people's lives.

Scare tactics and panic are often worse than the outcome of the outbreak.
To put things into perspective : In a normal year flu kills 12,000 - 20,000 mainly elderly in britain and 250,000 more worldwide!!!
There have been cases of this strain since the 1950's;in Europe 58 cases and in a military camp in New Jersey in 1976, 200 soldiers were infected(12 were hospitalised and 1 died!) this is not a new thing.

However, this seems to have proved to be resistant to older antivirals such as Amantadine, but we do have other antivirals such as Tamiflu and Relenza (all prescription only) and the good news is that Britain is better prepared for a pandemic than it was 5 years ago.
The Government has 14million courses of Tamiflu stockpiled and last year pledged to double the amount to provide enough for 50% of the population.
At worst in flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968 most recovered, there was no huge panic, cities never emptied, travel carried on and the economy was not devastated.
As with everything be aware of symptoms of course and general hygiene and surely it will become another flash in the pan or I will have to eat my hat (bigtime)
Just a greater excuse for being self sufficient and throwing your televisions away

I was speaking to our emergency co-ordinator today who was telling me that most of the Mexicans who have died had an underlying virus (specific to Mexico) that, when combined with SF, meant that their immune systems were under huge strain.

The papers/media, have, as usual, blown this all out of proportion.
SF has been active in Mexico for several months, but the CDC were only recently notified. It isn't a 'pandemic' or anything of the sort yet.

Annpan wrote:Thanks for your concern everyone, OH has gone to work expecting a media frenzy, I am under orders not to speak to any press if they phone (well, whoever gave them the wedding photos sounds like a more likely candidate for hounding IMO)

We are just hoping for the best for their friends and family, some of whom we also know, some of whom are also infected - media reports seem to say that tamiflu is working so we aren't too worried.

Well that's one way to get your wedding photos in the international press huh

reports I have heard are that they were not that ill, more that the health authorities are interested in keeping it contained..

Even if this does turn into a global flu pandemic I doubt it will be another 1918. The 1918 pandemic was exceptional. I think it may be the only category 5 flu pandemic.

A 'normal' flu pandemic is more like the 1957 and 1968 ones (both category 2), and to be honest things have moved on even since 1968 so I doubt we'll even hit the 1 million death toll that 1968 hit unless the damned thing mutates to be immune to antivirals (and this is flu it mutates if you look at it funny so that's not impossible). If I was a betting person I'd put money on this being a category 1 one even though this strain is a H1N1 resort just like the spanish flu. They didn't have respirators or anti-virals in 1918.

The major danger isn't that it'll kill a lot of people - it might then again it might not be any more fatal than normal flu. The major danger is that flu is an illness that incapacitates you for its duration. If a large chunk of the population go down at once the infrastructure grinds to a halt.

Honestly there are some people at work I feel like shaking and yelling "It's the flu, people, not the Black Death." Even the Spanish Flu Pandemic was nothing on the Black Death.

But I ramble,
Becky

Even the media are saying that the Mexican deaths were due to underlying respiratory problems and not the flu. All the people that have had symptoms in this country seem to get over it really quickly.

But they have started closing schools.

IMHO I just want to get infected as quickly as possible so that I get it over with. A few days of 'mild flu-like symptoms' doesn't sound that bad to me (well not compared to some of the alternatives -like shopping at T3sc0 )

Zoe

Thomzo wrote: A few days of 'mild flu-like symptoms' doesn't sound that bad to me (well not compared to some of the alternatives -like shopping at T3sc0 )

Zoe

Oh, that made me giggle.

Current worry that I have heard is that it could infect as much as 10% of the country at one point, 10% more might have to stay off work to look after sick partner/child/dependent and before you know it we could have 20% of the workforce off work in some random week and the country would near enough grind to a hault.

Personally I think this is a gross exaggeration, but I understand that even a 'mild' unknown flu virus can have serious economic consequences as there is no natural resilience to it.