Peak Oil

[greenorelse]

The only thing worse than oil running out is oil not running out.

Good point.

Trouble is, oil is not 'running out'. We've just passed the half-way stage of burning it. The climate change that has already occurred is nothing compared to what's descending upon us.

[The Riff-Raff Element]

Ah, but the second half will disappear a lot quicker!

[gregorach]

The only thing worse than oil running out is oil not running out.

Good point.

Trouble is, oil is not 'running out'. We've just passed the half-way stage of burning it. The climate change that has already occurred is nothing compared to what's descending upon us.

Whether we've passed the half-way point (of total production, that is) kinda depends on what you mean by "oil"... There's loads of "oil" left in tar sands and oil shales, and that stuff makes regular crude look positively emerald in comparison. The whole "peak oil" thing is turning out to be a lot more complicated than Hubbert predicted - we probably haven't actually passed the 50% depletion point for all values of "oil", but we quite probably have passed the peak rate of production, and we've almost certainly passed the peak of net energy production from "oil".

[okra]

Ah, but the second half will disappear a lot quicker!

With demand growing in China by 15% a year and in other developing nations even if the rest of the world's useage remains steady the remaining 50% will last about 40 to 60 years

[greenorelse]

I think it's academic, gregorach. My own observations, news-gathering and common sense tells me that cheap fossil energy will continue to get scarcer and is directly linked to economic contraction.

Whether that forces prices up, given demand destruction, we'll have to see. I find it highly depressing that we cannot use what fossil energy we have left to create permanence in the form of how we gather and use the only sustainable energy we do have.

[homegrown]

In so many ways everyone is right, ofcourse to reduce the need for fossil fuels we would also need to stop that dangerous president that is appearing all over the world... Global Market.

We need to feed quality organic sustainable food to our own people before exporting it to other countries, in NZ we have basically two food grades export quality and crap!!!. and yet farm killed meat and farm fresh milk sales are eirher prohibited or aggressively controlled and think of all the FF that is used to ship say butter to England, when you already make your own.

The first key to reducing FF use is Local people, Local Products and Local resources, the second is limiting vehicle engine capacity in the cities. After all you don't need a V8 or Hummer to drive five minutes to the dairy or even half an hour across town, also enforced car-pooling and promoting public transport as well as capping a city size and population, for example Auckland NZ should not take anymore people instead they should be eployed in smaller cities or told to stay put.And balanced employment ratios after all why move to the capital to be a politician when you can shovel shit on the local farm

[gregorach]

I think it's academic, gregorach. My own observations, news-gathering and common sense tells me that cheap fossil energy will continue to get scarcer and is directly linked to economic contraction.

Oh, certainly. I was just pointing out that you can't necessarily make assumptions about the total amount of oil-like fossil fuels (and associated global warming potential) left from a simple Hubbert linearisation based on current trends in production volume. In other words, the production rate peak doesn't necessarily coincide with passing the 50% mark of ultimately recoverable reserves.

[paul123456]

Hello there ,

we are all sheep , the wool is being pulled over our eyes .
Why is petrol only 1.10 sterling in Qatar ? A liter ?

Because we are all being screwed , and obviously like it .

regards ,

Paul

[Minnesota]

I think that the best solution to reducing our dependance on fossil fuels is to manage our city infrastructures better, things such as
devanning large trucks to solar charged electric delivery vehicles
banning civillian vehicles in central business districts
developing park n ride solar charged electric public transport
free public transport
promoting and supporting pedal powered taxi services for central city areas

What about Airplanes ?
WE NEED TO FLY LESS !!!
In the USA, there is an average of 35,000 flights each day.

[homegrown]

I concur Minnesota

Since I don't like flying it's not a problem for me but I suspect that most poeple would be in to much of a hurry to take a boat, but yes we should definately get rid of plains, sailings and I mean wind power is much more fun. I saw a boat that is wind powered, they use it to charge its electric moter batteries.

[okra]

Solar powered planes could be the answer. The Swiss-built aircraft is being tested to assess whether it can fly in darkness, using solar cells on its wings to generate enough power to stay in the air for 24 hours.
Solar Impulse, registration HB-SIA, took off from Switzerland shortly before 7am local time after an equipment problem delayed a previous attempt last week.
The Solar Impulse team says pilot Andre Borschberg will take the prototype to an altitude of 8,500 meters (27,900 feet) by this evening, according to the project's Twitter page.
He will then slowly descend through the night and aim for a dawn landing.
The project is sponsored by Bertrand Piccard, who was the first to circle the globe non-stop in a balloon.

[President Bartlet]

Peak oil probably occurred in 2006 and is a factor in the subsequent financial meltdown.

We are on the undulating plateau before we fall off the edge of the energy cliff. Pretty much all of M King Hubbert's predictions have been proven to be accurate and 2010 was the year that PO started entering mainstream conscience through reports like the IEAs and the US military and from articles in the mainstream media. Whilst governments know about the massive upcoming resource crunch they don't want to frighten either the markets or the populaces. Therefore nothing will be done until it's far too late.

What people on this forum are doing is the antidote, along with a massive committment to relocalisation.

Recommended reading: Powerswitch online forum, Wolf at the Door website, The Shock Doctrine Naomi Klein, anything by Sharon Astyk (online and in print) plus Dimitry Orlov (online and in print).

[Turtuga Blanku]

An interesting documentary about peak oil, called "a crude awakening":

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

(Peak oil probably took place before the turn of the century. Discoveries of easy accessible, huge oil fields all took place pretty much in 'the olden days'. Peak oil in the USA took place decades ago.)

[okra]

An interesting documentary about peak oil, called "a crude awakening":

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

(Peak oil probably took place before the turn of the century. Discoveries of easy accessible, huge oil fields all took place pretty much in 'the olden days'. Peak oil in the USA took place decades ago.)

Excellent link

[okra]

How will we know when the oil decline bites. People have made various predictions. The first is from the ASPO Newsletter of March 2002 (the ‘Nemesis Report’).

Initially it will be denied. There will be much lying and obfuscation. Then prices will rise and demand will fall. The rich will outbid the poor for available supplies. The system will initially appear to rebalance. The dash for gas will become more frenzied. People will realise nuclear power stations take up to ten years to build. People will also realise wind, waves, solar and other renewables are all pretty marginal and take a lot of energy to construct. There will be a dash for more fuel-efficient vehicles and equipment. The poor will not be able to afford the investment or the fuel.

Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas will become completely frenzied. More and more countries will decide to reserve oil and later gas supplies for their own people. Air quality will be ignored as coal production and consumption expand once more. Once the decline really gets under way, liquids production will fall relentlessly by 5%/year. Energy prices will rise remorselessly. Inflation will become endemic. Resource conflicts will break out.