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This is the point when the maximum rate at which oil is extracted reaches a peak because of technical and geological constraints, with global production going into decline from then on. The UK Government, along with many other governments, has believed that peak oil will not occur until well into the 21st Century, at least not until after 2030. The International Energy Agency believes peak oil will come perhaps by 2020. But it also believes that we are heading for an even earlier "oil crunch" because demand after 2010 is likely to exceed dwindling supplies.

The whole of our economic system has been built on oil - from plastic to fertiliser let alone the whole transport system and we are totally dependant on the stuff. If we are peaking and the price escalates what impact will this have?

Actually the IEA has at last admitted that 'peak oil' happened five years ago, something which was pretty obvious to interested parties at the time and before.

Just as the massive production of extremely cheap fossil energy led to the economic bubble, it is my belief that the physical restriction of energy which thus was inevitable from 2005 on was a - the - major factor in the woes of subsequent years.

Growth, as predicated by the availability of cheap energy, has ended. Colin Campbell's succinct phrase says it better:

...growth of financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that tomorrow's expansion was collateral for today's debt.

My own view also is that 'peak oil' is largely irrelevant, being a mere inevitable instant in time. What is far more relevant is how we deal with our societies as fossil fuel gets scarcer.

Furthermore, I find it hard to believe that prices will rise that much: we may simply see prices being higher to a point where demand drops, holding the price of fossil fuel steady; a few burps in the graph. There again, who can predict the future?

When stuff gets scarce, then yes the price goes up. But if you can't get it or - better still - if you don't need it, it doesn't matter what price it is.

greenorelse wrote:Just as the massive production of extremely cheap fossil energy led to the economic bubble, it is my belief that the physical restriction of energy which thus was inevitable from 2005 on was a - the - major factor in the woes of subsequent years.

Very much agreed. I find it amazing that we're ticking along at $90/bbl and nobody even thinks it's remarkable any more. Ten years ago people would have called you mad if you'd predicted $40/bbl...

gregorach wrote: Very much agreed. I find it amazing that we're ticking along at $90/bbl and nobody even thinks it's remarkable any more. Ten years ago people would have called you mad if you'd predicted $40/bbl...

I vividly recall the day during the Iraq / Kuwait affair when I paid $40.25 per bbl for a cargo of Forties crude from BP. Real head-in-the-hands stuff: how could it ever get so expensive???

I agree that peak oil has passed, certainly if we're talking about conventional stuff. As for the unconventional oils, well, there's masses of that, but the cost both environmentally and financially of bring this stuff to market is staggering.

I'm confident we'll touch $200 per bbl by 2015, which is going to mean a lot of hardship for many, but the upside is that kind of price will give a real boot up the bum to developing alternatives both in terms of sources of energy and in its conservation.

I hope.

'scuse me. Quick daft question: what's "bbl"?
Thank you

The thing about peak oil is that it has been so carefully managed by the oil companies that many of the western world is oblivious to the fact that it happened. But the worst thing of all is that they insist on telling us that plastic is the way to go. In New Zealand its just remarkable at what goes on, here we pay for diesel and then pay a road users tax as well but the wierd thing is that diesel is almost as expensive as petrol at the pump.

I think that the best solution to reducing our dependance on fossil fuels is to manage our city infrastructures better, things such as
devanning large trucks to solar charged electric delivery vehicles
banning civillian vehicles in central business districts
developing park n ride solar charged electric public transport
free public transport
promoting and supporting pedal powered taxi services for central city areas

and for country areas, returning to local based resource systems

I know preaching to the converted but ... well you know!

Rosendula wrote: 'scuse me. Quick daft question: what's "bbl"?
Thank you

It's the standard abbreviation for a barrel of oil, Rosie. I didn't know why it had a double b so I looked it up ...

"The "b" may have been doubled originally to indicate the plural (1 bl, 2 bbl), or possibly it was doubled to eliminate any confusion with bl as a symbol for the bale."

Mike

Thanks Mike :)

Rosendula wrote: 'scuse me. Quick daft question: what's "bbl"?
Thank you

Sorry Old habits die hard. bbl is an abreviation for blue barrel. A long time ago when oil was actually delivered in barrels of 42 US gal. or about 151 litres they were painted blue to distiguish them from barrels that would be used for food or drink.

lovely! Thanks Jon :)

homegrown wrote:The thing about peak oil is that it has been so carefully managed by the oil companies that many of the western world is oblivious to the fact that it happened. But the worst thing of all is that they insist on telling us that plastic is the way to go. In New Zealand its just remarkable at what goes on, here we pay for diesel and then pay a road users tax as well but the wierd thing is that diesel is almost as expensive as petrol at the pump.

I think that the best solution to reducing our dependance on fossil fuels is to manage our city infrastructures better, things such as
devanning large trucks to solar charged electric delivery vehicles
banning civillian vehicles in central business districts
developing park n ride solar charged electric public transport
free public transport
promoting and supporting pedal powered taxi services for central city areas

and for country areas, returning to local based resource systems

I know preaching to the converted but ... well you know!

You are but carry on! These suggestions need repeating time and time again. I believe the need to travel has to be tackled but I think people are addicted so an oblique approach must be put in place.

The ultimate answer is actually something else entirely, in fact. It's this and it's never going to happen.

The transport problem does not worry me so much as feeding the world. The systems that produce the world's food supply are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Vast amounts of oil and gas are used as raw materials and energy in the manufacture of fertilisers and pesticides, and as cheap and readily available energy at all stages of food production: from planting, irrigation, feeding and harvesting, through to processing, distribution and packaging. In addition, fossil fuels are essential in the construction and the repair of equipment and infrastructure needed to facilitate this industry, including farm machinery, processing facilities, storage, ships, trucks and roads. The industrial food supply system is one of the biggest consumers of fossil fuels and one of the greatest producers of greenhouse gases. Switching to organic and sustainable agriculture is the answer but we need to start doing so yesterday.

Agreed okra. And the vast amounts of food used to feed farmed animals and vehicles - scandalous. 95% of soya crops go directly to animals, for instance.

Famine is on its way, big time.

Apart from that, the simple method I linked to above would be our best bet, if the world was fair.

The only thing worse than oil running out is oil not running out.